Consumer credit (Jul): Downward trend continues (Mon, 06 Sep 2010 09:41:09 GMT)
Trade deficit (Jul): somewhat narrower due to slower domestic demand In preparation for the FOMC meeting on 21 September, the Beige Book is likely to report that the economic recovery has decelerated somewhat – particularly in manufacturing, which had been the pillar of the upswing until now. However, the latest ISM index showed that manufacturing is still expanding quite robustly. Growth in private sector employment will probably be described as moderate. The inflation outlook will have

German industrial new orders (July): Up (Mon, 06 Sep 2010 05:25:15 GMT)
Output in the German producing sector (July): up German industrial new orders are likely have continued increasing and output in the German producing sector is expected to have rebounded in July, as most of the correlated indicators improved. French industrial production could also have rebounded in July. Italian industrial production will probably have picked up in July, because Italian business confidence improved significantly. Q2 Italian GDP is unlikely to be revised substantially.

PCE core deflator (Jul): Annual rate still at 1.4% (Mon, 30 Aug 2010 11:34:43 GMT)
Consumer confidence (Aug): virtually unchanged at very low level ISM manufacturing index (Aug): sharp downward correction Nonfarm payrolls (Aug): another, albeit smaller, decline Personal income was flat in June but could have risen by 0.3% mom in July: nonfarm payrolls declined again due to the loss of temporary Census jobs, but aggregate working hours increased by 0.4% mom and average hourly earnings went up by 0.2% mom. Personal spending which had merely remained stable in June, is likely

German retail sales (July): Up (Mon, 30 Aug 2010 05:59:45 GMT)
EMU industrial confidence (August): slight improvement EMU economic sentiment (August): up somewhat EMU inflation flash estimate (August): lower German adjusted unemployment (Aug): another decline of 20k German retail sales (July): up ECB: no policy action but release of adjusted projections On Monday, the EU Commission publishes its sentiment indicators for August . We expect economic sentiment and industrial confidence to have improved slightly: most of the corresponding national indicators

September 2010 Economic Calendar (Fri, 27 Aug 2010 09:44:53 GMT)

GDP (Q2; 2nd estimate): Significant downward revision (Mon, 23 Aug 2010 10:33:01 GMT)
Existing home sales (Jul): plunge after expiration of tax incentives Durable goods orders (Jul): rebound due to jump in aircraft and vehicle orders GDP (Q2; 2nd estimate): significant downward revision Existing home sales fell by more than 7% in the last two months, but that decline was moderate relative to the plunge in forerunning pending home sales, which dived by more than 30% since their April peak. Thus we predict that existing home sales will have decreased sharply from 5.37m to a new

M3 money supply growth (July): Moderate rise (Mon, 23 Aug 2010 08:17:06 GMT)
German ifo business climate (August): unchanged PMI manufacturing index EMU (August): unchanged M3 money supply growth (July): moderate rise German CPI inflation (August): slight decrease The ifo business climate for Germany might only have remained stable in August , after its unexpected improvement in July. The German ZEW economic sentiment and the US ISM manufacturing index have deteriorated. German yield spreads have narrowed, as long-term interest rates have decreased and shortterm rates

Housing starts (Jul): Slight rise, but still at depressed level (Mon, 16 Aug 2010 09:33:01 GMT)
First manufacturing indices (Aug): no significant recovery Housing starts (Jul): slight rise, but still at depressed level Industrial production (Jul): rebound led by manufacturing and utilities In July, the New York Empire manufacturing index plummeted from 19.6 to 5.1 – the lowest level so far this year. After this sharp decrease, it could have risen somewhat in August, but there is unlikely to have been a significant improvement for the following reasons: the inventory adjustment cycle

German ZEW economic sentiment (August): More or less unchanged (Mon, 16 Aug 2010 05:10:18 GMT)
German ZEW economic sentiment (August): more or less unchanged Final HICP inflation in the eurozone will probably be confirmed at 1.7% yoy in July; this would correspond with a monthly inflation rate of –0.3%. But the national data already available suggest that inflation could be revised slightly upwards. In the coming months, inflation rates are expected to be quite moderate. The German ZEW economic sentiment could have stabilised in August. The ifo business expectations improved, but the US

Trade balance (Jun): Deficit widens further (Mon, 09 Aug 2010 10:51:45 GMT)
FOMC: outlook unusually uncertain and risks to growth weighted to the downside Trade balance (Jun): deficit widens further Retail sales (Jul): moderate rebound due to higher car sales UMI consumer sentiment (Aug): down again, albeit only slightly The advance GDP estimate for Q2 showed that nonfarm business gross value added increased by 2.6% qoq annualised. According to the labour market reports, aggregate hours worked are likely to have gone up by about the same rate, and thus we expect

German & EMU GDP (Q2): Up (Mon, 09 Aug 2010 05:00:31 GMT)
EMU industrial production (June): up German & EMU GDP (Q2): up German GDP is likely to have surged in Q2. Q1 GDP growth is expected to be revised upwards. On 13 August, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing its “flash release” on German Q2 GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 24 August. Construction investment is expected to have rebounded. Investment in machinery and equipment, net exports and government consumption will probably have

ISM manufacturing index (Jun): Expansion slowing (Mon, 02 Aug 2010 10:10:29 GMT)
ISM non-manufacturing index (Jun): unchanged at best PCE core deflator (May): approaching lower end of the Fed’s comfort zone Labour market report (Jun): drop due to significant reduction in Census jobs Personal income could have gone up by a mere 0.1% mom in June, as aggregate weekly hours only rose slightly and average hourly earnings actually fell. Personal spending might have increased by 0.2% mom, in line with the GDP data released last Friday. Just like core CPI, the PCE core deflator

German industrial new orders (June): Up (Mon, 02 Aug 2010 04:51:06 GMT)
Output in the German producing sector (June): up  ECB: no policy action German industrial new orders might have rebounded in June , as the correlated indicators sent mixed, but mainly quite positive signals. Output in the German producing sector could have continued to rise in June , but the May increase is likely to be revised downwards. Italian industrial production will probably have stagnated in June, because Italian business confidence deteriorated slightly. Italian GDP is expected

August 2010 Economic Calendar (Fri, 30 Jul 2010 10:44:47 GMT)

Consumer confidence (Jul): Moderately lower (Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:21:18 GMT)
New home sales (Jun): slight rebound from depressed levels  Consumer confidence (Jul): moderately lower  Durable goods orders (Jun): noticeable increase mainly due to nondefense aircraft orders  GDP (Q2): up by about 2.5% qoq in annualised terms After the expiry of the home buyer tax credit on 30 April, new home sales in May plunged by a third to a record low of only 300,000 units. Sales are likely to have remained depressed in June. In view of the sales level, however, we

German CPI inflation (July): Up (Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:09:04 GMT)
M3 money supply growth (June): annual rate still slightly negative German CPI inflation (July): up EMU inflation flash estimate (July): higher EMU industrial confidence (July): up EMU economic sentiment (July): up German adjusted unemployment (July): moderate decline German retail sales (June): modest drop EMU industrial confidence and economic sentiment will probably have improved sharply in July , just like the majority of the corresponding national figures. EMU consumer confidence is not

Existing home sales (Jun): set to plunge (Mon, 19 Jul 2010 12:01:25 GMT)
Housing starts (Jun): stable after significant decline Existing home sales (Jun): set to plunge Leading indicators (Jun): signalling a slowdown In June, the NAHB index fell significantly by 5 points to 17, reflecting a drop in building activities after the expiration of tax incentives. Building activities will probably have remained subdued in July. We expect the NAHB index to have retreated somewhat further to about 15 in July – far below the threshold of 50, above which more builders view

German ifo business climate (July): Unchanged (Mon, 19 Jul 2010 05:12:10 GMT)
German ifo business climate (July): unchanged PMI manufacturing index EMU (July): unchanged The ifo business climate for Germany could have remained unchanged at least in July. The German ZEW economic sentiment and the US ISM manufacturing index have both declined. German yield spreads have also gone down, as short-term interest rates have increased and long-term rates have been fluctuating. The DAX and crude oil prices have been fluctuating too and the euro has appreciated somewhat recently.

Retail sales (Jun): No rebound (Mon, 12 Jul 2010 09:35:54 GMT)
Trade balance (May): deficit somewhat narrower  Retail sales (Jun) : no rebound  Inflation data (Jun) : annual rates set to drop sharply  FOMC minutes : will include adjusted projections First regional PMIs (Jul): moderate expansion  Industrial production (Jun) : decline after surge in May  UMI consumer sentiment index (Jul) : lower despite decrease in gasoline prices In April, exports fell somewhat more than imports, and thus the trade deficit widened from $40.0bn to

EMU industrial production (May): Up (Mon, 12 Jul 2010 04:45:24 GMT)
German ZEW economic sentiment (July): down  EMU industrial production (May): up The German ZEW economic sentiment could have continued to decline in July. The ifo business expectations, the US ISM manufacturing index and German yield spreads have all gone down, as long-term interest rates have decreased and short-term rates increased. The DAX and crude oil prices have been fluctuating and the euro has appreciated somewhat recently. EMU industrial production will probably have increased in

ISM non-manufacturing index (Jun): Unchanged at best (Mon, 05 Jul 2010 08:59:39 GMT)
Wholesale inventories (May): moderate build-up continues The ISM non-manufacturing index was unchanged at 55.4 for the third consecutive month in May and thus remained far behind its manufacturing counterpart, which has benefited more from restocking of inventories. The gap between the two indices is narrowing because the upswing has broadened somewhat, but also because of the moderation in the ISM manufacturing index. The latter fell to 56.2 in June which is still a solid level, albeit the

ECB: No policy action (Mon, 05 Jul 2010 06:11:27 GMT)
German industrial new orders (May): unchanged at least Output in the German producing sector (May) : up ECB: no policy action German industrial new orders might have remained unchanged at least in May , as the correlated indicators sent mixed, but on the whole rather positive signals. However, output in the German producing sector could have continued to increase in May , just like most of the correlated indicators. The same applies to Italian industrial production. French industrial

Consumer confidence (Jun): Only a modest improvement (Mon, 28 Jun 2010 12:57:30 GMT)
PCE core deflator (May): approaching lower boundary of the Fed’s comfort zone Consumer confidence (Jun): only a modest improvement ISM manufacturing index (Jun): decline, but still at an elevated level Labour market report (Jun): drop due to significant reduction in Census jobs Personal income could again have gone up by 0.4% mom in June, as both aggregate weekly hours and average hourly earnings rose. But personal spending might have remained stable at best, as retail sales unexpectedly fell

German retail sales (May): Modest drop (Mon, 28 Jun 2010 06:16:24 GMT)
M3 money supply growth (April): turning upwards German CPI inflation (June): down markedly EMU inflation flash estimate (June): lower EMU industrial confidence (June): down somewhat EMU economic sentiment (June): slight deterioration German adjusted unemployment (June): another significant decline German retail sales (May): modest drop Although market interest rates still provide little incentive to put funds into time deposits or other short term instruments, euro area M3 has started to rise

FOMC-meeting: Statement still likely to contain "extended period" phrase (Mon, 21 Jun 2010 10:01:05 GMT)
Home sales (May): existing home sales up, but new home sales down  FOMC-meeting: statement still likely to contain “extended period” phrase  Durable goods orders (May): noticeable decline due to nondefense aircraft Existing home sales rose by about 15% in the last two months, due to the approaching expiration date of the homebuyer tax credit. Given that pending home sales (which lead actual sales by a month or two) increased by a further 6% mom in April, we forecast that existing

German ifo business climate (June): Slightly up (Mon, 21 Jun 2010 05:50:32 GMT)
PMI manufacturing index EMU (June): down somewhat The ifo business climate for Germany could have gone up in June , as current assessment is likely to have improved more than business expectations deteriorated (see the chart on page 2). The German ZEW economic sentiment and the US ISM manufacturing index have declined. German yield spreads have gone down, as long-term interest rates have decreased and short-term rates have risen. However, the euro and crude oil prices have fallen too, and the

Industrial production (May): Sharp increase (Mon, 14 Jun 2010 09:06:13 GMT)
Inflation data (May): declines due to plunge in energy prices  First regional PMIs (June): still at elevated levels  Housing starts (May): stable after significant rise  Industrial production (May): sharp increase Headline inflation rates are likely to have fallen in May, due to the sharp downward correction in oil prices. Import prices could have declined by as much as 1.5% mom in May. Due to an additional base effect, the annual rate could have gone down markedly from 11.1% to

EMU industrial production (April): Up (Mon, 14 Jun 2010 06:13:04 GMT)
German ZEW economic sentiment (June): down EMU industrial production (April): up The German ZEW economic sentiment could have continued to decrease in June . The ifo business expectations, the US ISM manufacturing index, the DAX and German yield spreads have all gone down, with long-term interest rates having decreased and short-term rates having increased. However, the euro and crude oil prices have also declined. EMU industrial production will probably have increased in March , as the

UMI consumer sentiment (June): Slight improvement (Mon, 07 Jun 2010 10:22:33 GMT)
Trade balance (April): widening deficit due to domestic demand and oil imports Retail sales (May): increase due to higher car sales and gasoline prices UMI consumer sentiment (June): slight improvement Consumer credit increased by $2bn in March, as a result of an incentive-driven surge in car sales. Thus we expect consumer credit to have fallen back somewhat in April, albeit only slightly by $1bn, as consumer confidence is improving. We expect wholesale inventories to have gone up by 0.5% mom.

ECB: No policy action (Mon, 07 Jun 2010 05:38:58 GMT)
German industrial new orders (April): up Output in the German producing sector (April): up  ECB: no policy action German industrial new orders and output in the German producing sector are likely to have increased in April , just like the correlated indicators. Italian industrial production might also have risen in April , as most of the correlated indicators improved. French industrial production could have remained more or less unchanged in April , as the correlated indicators sent

Factory orders (Apr): Eighth consecutive increase (Mon, 31 May 2010 09:44:22 GMT)
ISM indices (May): gap between the two indices is narrowing Factory orders (Apr): eighth consecutive increase Labour market report (May): nonfarm payrolls boosted by Census The ISM manufacturing index rose further in April, from 59.6 to 60.4. This was the highest level since July 2004. In May, the first two regional manufacturing indices from New York and Philadelphia showed mixed results. However, both would point to a significantly slower expansion in May, if their subcomponents were

German retail sales (April): Set to rebound (Mon, 31 May 2010 05:56:47 GMT)
EMU industrial confidence (May): up slightly EMU economic sentiment (May): slight improvement German retail sales (April): set to rebound M3 money supply growth (April): still negative EMU inflation flash estimate (May): up slightly German adjusted unemployment (May): another marked decline EMU industrial confidence and economic sentiment will probably have improved somewhat in May , just like the majority of the corresponding national figures. EMU consumer confidence and the Purchasing

June 2010 Economic Calendar (Fri, 28 May 2010 15:13:02 GMT)

GDP (Q1 2nd estimate): Slight upward revision (Mon, 24 May 2010 05:35:26 GMT)
Existing home sales (Apr): another noticeable increase due to the tax credit Consumer confidence (May): significant rise as labour market conditions are improving Durable goods orders (Apr): stable after surge in orders ex transportation GDP (Q1 2nd estimate): slight upward revision PCE core deflator (Apr): at the lower end of the Fed’s comfort zone Existing home sales increased by almost 7% mom to 5.35m in March, due to the approaching expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, which had been

German CPI inflation (May): Up (Mon, 24 May 2010 05:00:24 GMT)
The preliminary results for national German CPI in May will be released on Thursday. We expect German consumer prices to have increased by 0.4% month-on-month, which would lift the annual rate to 1.6%. Due to seasonal effects, prices for accommodation services and package tours will probably have been higher than in April. On the other hand, clothing could have become cheaper. Furthermore, the inflation effect from gasoline and heating oil prices are likely to have been more or less neutral.

Consumer prices (Apr): Disinflation at the core level (Mon, 17 May 2010 11:46:52 GMT)
First regional PMIs (May): indicating ongoing strength in manufacturing  Housing starts (Apr): moderate upward trend continues  Consumer prices (Apr): disinflation at the core level  Leading indicators (Apr): modest rise following massive increase The New York Empire manufacturing index jumped nine points in April, and the six-month outlook also improved further. Thus the 3-month moving average for expectations has reached a seven-year high. We expect the New York Empire to

PMI manufacturing index EMU (May): Up (Mon, 17 May 2010 05:56:50 GMT)
German ifo business climate (May): further improvement German ZEW economic sentiment (May): modest rise PMI manufacturing index EMU (May): up The German ZEW economic sentiment and the ifo business climate for Germany could have improved once more in May, albeit not as sharply as in April. The ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have both gone up. And the comprehensive rescue package for eurozone countries with crucial budgetary problems has probably brought further

Retail sales (Apr): Lower car sales dampen increase (Mon, 10 May 2010 09:59:06 GMT)
Trade balance (Mar): wider deficit due to higher oil imports and domestic demand Retail sales (Apr): lower car sales dampen increase Industrial production (Apr): upward trend continues UMI consumer sentiment (May): return to the January level For the first time in more than two years, business inventories rose markedly in the 1st quarter and contributed strongly to GDP growth again (1.6 percentage points, after 3.8 in Q4). The Department of Commerce assumed that wholesale and retail

EMU industrial production (March): Up (Mon, 10 May 2010 05:03:58 GMT)
German and EMU GDP (Q1): unchanged at best  EMU industrial production (March): up French and Italian GDP could have increased in Q1, but German and overall EMU GDP are likely to have stagnated at best. On 12 May, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing its “flash release” on German Q1 GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 21 May. Changes in inventories could have rebounded. Government and private consumption and investment in machinery and

PCE core deflator (Mar): Slight increase (Mon, 03 May 2010 10:38:34 GMT)
I SM indices (Apr): at robust expansion levels Labour market report (Apr): temporary Census hiring and solid growth in private jobs March data for personal income and spending were incorporated in the first GDP estimate for Q1. Judging by these data, personal income growth might have recovered to 0.6% mom in March. Growth in personal spending could have accelerated to about 0.8% mom, in line with the sharp increase in retail sales of 1.6%, which was largely due to higher vehicle sales.